Polls: Senator McCain is a goner

Eleven days before the presidential elections, the polls show a solid win for Senator Obama in both the popular vote and the electoral votes. Even hypotheses are against the Vietnam War veteran.

This has probably been the longest presidential election in U.S. history. Every time I hear Americans talking about it, there is at least one person who says “I’m sick and tired of this election, and I will be glad when it’s over”. Besides, this presidential election is surely the most expensive one in U.S. history but that’s another matter.

Nevertheless, it looks as if it’s already over. In order to be elected President of the United States of America, a candidate must win at least 270 electoral votes. There are 438 electoral votes at stake on a winner-take-all basis. For example, whoever wins the state of Colorado, takes all the 9 electoral votes there. Electoral votes are based on the states’ number of Representatives and Senators in Congress. Colorado has 7 Representatives and 2 Senators, making a total of 9 electoral votes in presidential elections.

Yesterday I watched a little of the Rachel Maddow Show, and on the bottom of the TV screen it said that Mr. McCain’s campaign staff is now aiming at the electoral vote, instead of the popular vote. It’s too late though.

I suggest that you look at the polls! Look at the Politico’s 2008 Swing State Map in particular! According to it, Senator Obama leads 375-163.

Here, I will calculate possible worst outcomes for Barack Obama. I exclude the solid blue and solid red states. Swing states are currently 168-0 to the Democratic candidate. Ignoring the solid lead in some of them to Senator Obama, I will hypothetically divide them 50:50, that is, 84-84. If this happens, then the total electoral votes will be 291-247 to Senator Obama. So there’s plenty of work to do for Senator McCain’s staff – work that takes longer than eleven days.

I will try to be more generous to John McCain, and take a look at the leaning states where the lead to one of the candidates is more solid. Leaning blue states give 32 electoral votes to Mr. Obama. Assuming that swing states’ electoral votes are equally distributed, Senator McCain will need 23 of the leaning blue states’ electoral votes in order to win the election and become the next President of the United States of America.

Other possibility for Mr. McCain’s campaign staff is to get 107 of the 168 swing states’ electoral votes. Either way, I can’t see them do it so late in the campaign when even most of the undecided voters already somewhat know for whom they are going to vote

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